The Arctic Is Melting, So The US Military Has Another Place It Has To Defend

May 9th, 2014 - by admin

Ryan Koronowski / Climate Progress – 2014-05-09 01:35:30

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/11/22/2986391/arctic-strategy-pentagon/

(November 22, 2013) — For the first time, the Pentagon has a comprehensive strategy for the Arctic. This move is prompted mainly because climate change is causing the sea ice to steadily melt and allow ships to access more of the Arctic Ocean.

On Friday in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel helped to open the 5th Halifax International Security Forum by speaking about the Department of Defense’s Arctic Strategy.

The Strategy opens by saying the Arctic is at a “strategic inflection point” because “its ice cap is diminishing more rapidly than projected.” This brings increasing “human activity, driven by economic opportunity” that ranges from shipping and fishing to fossil fuel extraction and tourism. Most experts believe there will be no Arctic sea ice in the summer by 2030.

Secretary Hagel said in his speech that the US “will remain prepared to detect, deter, prevent and defeat threats to our homeland and we will continue to exercise US sovereignty in and around Alaska.” He continued: “Throughout human history, mankind has raced to discover the next frontier. And time after time, discovery was swiftly followed by conflict. We cannot erase this history. But we can assure that history does not repeat itself in the Arctic.”

The focus for the Pentagon in the region, according to this document, is to prepare the United States to “work collaboratively with allies and partners to promote a balanced approach to improving human and environmental security in the region.”

Arctic nations like the US must focus on cooperative security at the top of the globe is because there has already been conflict over how this new access to the region should be managed. The more ice melts, the more that governments and oil companies will be tempted by the oil underneath the ice.

Earlier this year, Rear Admiral (Ret.) David Titley (and Former Chief Oceanographer for the Navy) said “the opening of the Arctic is the most immediate national security challenge presented by climate change.” In September, activists from Greenpeace protested Russia’s first offshore drilling rig, and were jailed for piracy.

The main goals outlined in this new document are: security and stability in the region; protection of the US homeland and national interests; cooperation with other nations to “address challenges”; and preparation for a “wide range of challenges and contingencies.”

Military goals include “missile defense and early warning; deployment of sea and air systems for strategic sealift, strategic deterrence, maritime presence, and maritime security operations; and ensuring freedom of the seas.”

All of these goals change as the globe warms, sea levels rise, and sea ice melts. Hagel said that “the challenge of global climate change, while not new to history, is new to the modern world.”

“Climate change does not directly cause conflict, but it can add to the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty, and conflict.… The effects of climate change and new energy resources are far-reaching and unpredictable, demanding our attention and strategic thinking. While the opening of the Arctic will create unprecedented challenges, it will also create historic opportunities.”

The Arctic Strategy’s approach follows on the National Strategy for the Arctic Region, released in May, which focused — perhaps a little too much — on how a warming Arctic would allow the US to access currently-inaccessible fossil fuels.

Indeed, the main reason why the Arctic is warming enough to create such “historic opportunities” is the burning of fossil fuels that drives climate change. Earlier this year, NOAA began updating nautical charts to keep vessel safe as the ice changes so rapidly, and in September 2013, the first-ever bulk freighter made the voyage from Vancouver to Finland. It was carrying coal.

The US military is the largest single consumer of energy and oil on the planet. This is not good for the Pentagon’s budget, but it is also helping to drive the climatic forces that create the expanded responsibilities outlined in the Arctic Strategy. There are many efforts afoot in all branches of the military to reduce consumption and become reliant on more renewable sources of energy.

At the same time, the military is no stranger to responding to disasters that are likely to get worse as the world continues to warm. 13,000 Department of Defense personnel and seven warships responded to the devastation in the Philippines from Super Typhoon Haiyan. 14,000 provided relief in the wake of Superstorm Sandy.


NATIONAL STRATEGY
FOR THE ARCTIC REGION

President Barack Obama / The White House

WASHINGTON (May 10, 2013) — We in the lower forty-eight and Hawaii join Alaska’s residents in recognizing one simple truth — that the Arctic is an amazing place.

The Arctic is one of our planet’s last great frontiers. Our pioneering spirit is naturally drawn to this region, for the economic opportunities it presents and in recognition of the need to protect and conserve this unique, valuable, and changing environment.

As we consider how to make the most of the emerging economic opportunities in the region, we recognize that we must exercise responsible stewardship, using an integrated management approach and making decisions based on the best available information, with the aim of promoting healthy, sustainable, and resilient ecosystems over the long term.

The Arctic region is peaceful, stable, and free of conflict. The United States and its Arctic allies and partners seek to sustain this spirit of trust, cooperation and collaboration, both internationally and domestically.

Together, we have made much progress on issues of common concern, such as search and rescue, and pollution prevention and response. Working together, we will continue to increase our understanding of the region through scientific research and traditional knowledge.

Through the National Strategy for the Arctic Region, we articulate our strategic priorities to position the United States to meet the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

We will seek to prioritize and effectively integrate the work of Federal departments and agencies with activities that are already underway in the State of Alaska and at the international level.

And we will partner with the State of Alaska and Alaska Natives, as well as the international community and the private sector, to develop innovative solutions and new ways of operating.

The Arctic is changing. We must proceed, cognizant of what we must do now, and consistent with our principles and goals for the future


Executive Summary
“The United States is an Arctic Nation with broad and fundamental interests in the Arctic Region, where we seek to meet our national security needs, protect the environment, responsibly manage resources, account for indigenous communities, support scientific research, and strengthen international cooperation on a wide range of issues.”

The National Strategy for the Arctic Region sets forth the United States Government’s strategic priorities for the Arctic region. This strategy is intended to position the United States to respond effectively to challenges and emerging opportunities arising from significant increases in Arctic activity due to the diminishment of sea ice and the emergence of a new Arctic environment

It defines US national security interests in the Arctic region and identifies prioritized lines of effort, building upon existing initiatives by Federal, state, local, and tribal authorities, the private sector, and international partners, and aims to focus efforts where opportunities exist and action is needed. It is designed to meet the reality of a changing Arctic environment, while we simultaneously pursue our global objective of combating the climatic changes that are driving these environmental conditions.

Our strategy is built on three lines of effort:
1.Advance United States Security Interests — We will enable our vessels and aircraft to operate, consistent with international law, through, under, and over the airspace and waters of the Arctic, support lawful commerce, achieve a greater awareness of activity in the region, and intelligently evolve our Arctic infrastructure and capabilities, including ice-capable platforms as needed. US security in the Arctic encompasses a broad spectrum of activities, ranging from those supporting safe commercial and scientific operations to national defense.

2.Pursue Responsible Arctic Region Stewardship — We will continue to protect the Arctic environment and conserve its resources; establish and institutionalize an integrated Arctic management framework; chart the Arctic region; and employ scientific research and traditional knowledge to increase understanding of the Arctic.

3.Strengthen International Cooperation — Working through bilateral relationships and multilateral bodies, including the Arctic Council, we will pursue arrangements that advance collective interests, promote shared Arctic state prosperity, protect the Arctic environment, and enhance regional security, and we will work toward US accession to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Law of the Sea Convention).

Our approach will be informed by the following guiding principles:
• Safeguard Peace and Stability — Seek to maintain and preserve the Arctic region as an area free of conflict, acting in concert with allies, partners, and other interested parties. Support and preserve: international legal principles of freedom of navigation and overflight and other uses of the sea and airspace related to these freedoms, unimpeded lawful commerce, and the peaceful resolution of disputes for all nations.

• Make Decisions Using the Best Available Information — Across all lines of effort, decisions need to be based on the most current science and traditional knowledge.

• Pursue Innovative Arrangements — Foster partnerships with the State of Alaska, Arctic states, other international partners, and the private sector to more efficiently develop, resource, and manage capabilities, where appropriate and feasible, to better advance our strategic priorities in this austere fiscal environment.

• Consult and Coordinate with Alaska Natives — Engage in a consultation process with Alaska Natives, recognizing tribal governments’ unique legal relationship with the United States and providing for meaningful and timely opportunity to inform Federal policy affecting Alaskan Native communities

Introduction
We seek an Arctic region that is stable and free of conflict, where nations act responsibly in a spirit of trust and cooperation, and where economic and energy resources are developed in a sustainable manner that also respects the fragile environment and the interests and cultures of indigenous peoples.

As the United States addresses these opportunities and challenges, we will be guided by our central interests in the Arctic region, which include providing for the security of the United States; protecting the free flow of resources and commerce; protecting the environment; addressing the needs of indigenous communities; and enabling scientific research.

In protecting these interests, we draw from our long-standing policy and approach to the global maritime spaces in the 20th century, including freedom of navigation and overflight and other internationally lawful uses of the sea and airspace related to these freedoms; security on the oceans; maintaining strong relationships with allies and partners; and peaceful resolution of disputes without coercion.

To achieve this vision, the United States is establishing an overarching national approach to advance national security interests, pursue responsible stewardship of this precious and unique region, and serve as a basis for cooperation with other Arctic states and the international community as a whole to advance common interests. Even as we work domestically and internationally to minimize the effects of climate change, the effects are already apparent in the Arctic.

Ocean resources are more readily accessible as sea ice diminishes, but thawing ground is threatening communities as well as hindering land-based activities, including access to resources. Diminishing land and sea ice is altering ecosystems and the services they provide. As an Arctic nation, the United States must be proactive and disciplined in addressing changing regional conditions and in developing adaptive strategies to protect its interests

An undisciplined approach to exploring new opportunities in this frontier could result in significant harm to the region, to our national security interests, and to the global good.

When implementing this strategy, the United States will proceed in a thoughtful, responsible manner that leverages expertise, resources, and cooperation from the State of Alaska, Alaska Natives, and stakeholders across the entire nation and throughout the international community.

We will encourage and use science-informed decision making to aid this effort. We will endeavor to do no harm to the sensitive environment or to Alaska native communities and other indigenous populations that rely on Arctic resources.

Just as a common spirit and shared vision of peaceful partnership led to the development of an international space station, we believe much can be achieved in the Arctic region through collaborative international efforts, coordinated investments, and public-private partnerships

Structure of the Strategy
Through this National Strategy for the Arctic Region, we seek to guide, prioritize, and synchronize efforts to protect US national and homeland security interests, promote responsible stewardship, and foster international cooperation

This strategy articulates three priority lines of effort. It also identifies guiding principles as a foundation for Arctic region activities. Through a deliberate emphasis on the priority lines of effort and objectives, it aims to achieve a national unity of effort that is consistent with our domestic and international legal rights, obligations, and commitments and that is well coordinated with our Arctic neighbors and the international community.

These lines of effort identify common themes where specific emphasis and activities will be focused to ensure that strategic priorities are met. The three lines of effort, as well as the guiding principles are meant to be acted upon as a coherent whole.

Changing Conditions
While the Arctic region has experienced warming and cooling cycles over millennia, the current warming trend is unlike anything previously recorded. The reduction in sea ice has been dramatic, abrupt, and unrelenting. The dense, multi-year ice is giving way to thin layers of seasonal ice, making more of the region navigable year-round.

Scientific estimates of technically recoverable conventional oil and gas resources north of the Arctic Circle total approximately 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered gas deposits, as well as vast quantities of mineral resources, including rare earth elements, iron ore, and nickel.

These estimates have inspired fresh ideas for commercial initiatives and infrastructure development in the region. As portions of the Arctic Ocean become more navigable, there is increasing interest in the viability of the Northern Sea Route and other potential routes, including the Northwest Passage, as well as in development of Arctic resources

For all of the opportunities emerging with the increasing accessibility and economic and strategic interests in the Arctic, the opening and rapid development of the Arctic region presents very real challenges. On the environmental front, reduced sea ice is having an immediate impact on indigenous populations as well as on fish and wildlife.

Moreover, there may be potentially profound environmental consequences of continued ocean warming and Arctic ice melt. These consequences include altering the climate of lower latitudes, risking the stability of Greenland’s ice sheet, and accelerating the thawing of the Arctic permafrost in which large quantities of methane — a potent driver of climate change — as well as pollutants such as mercury are stored.

Uncoordinated development — and the consequent increase in pollution such as emissions of black carbon or other substances from fossil fuel combustion — could have unintended consequences on climate trends, fragile ecosystems, and Arctic communities. It is imperative that the United States proactively establish national priorities and objectives for the Arctic region.

Lines of Effort
To meet the challenges and opportunities in the Arctic region, and in furtherance of established Arctic Region Policy,we will pursue the following lines of effort and supporting objectives in a mutually reinforcing manner that incorporates the broad range of US current activities and interests in the Arctic region.

1.AdvanceUnited States Security Interests
Our highest priority is to protect the American people, our sovereign territory and rights, natural resources, and interests of the United States. To this end, the United States will identify, develop, and maintain the capacity and capabilities necessary to promote safety, security, and stability in the region through a combination of independent action, bilateral initiatives, and multilateral cooperation.

We acknowledge that the protection of our national security interests in the Arctic region must be undertaken with attention to environmental, cultural, and international considerations outlined throughout this strategy.

As many nations across the world aspire to expand their role in the Arctic, we encourage Arctic and non-Arctic states to work collaboratively through appropriate fora to address the emerging challenges and opportunities in the Arctic region, while we remain vigilant to protect the security interests of the United States and our allies.

To accomplish this line of effort, the United States Government will seek to:
• Evolve Arctic Infrastructure and Strategic Capabilities — Working cooperatively with the State of Alaska, local, and tribal authorities, as well as public and private sector partners, we will develop, maintain, and exercise the capacity to execute Federal responsibilities in our Arctic waters, airspace, and coastal regions, including the capacity to respond to natural or man-made disasters. We will carefully tailor this regional infrastructure, as well as our response capacity, to the evolving human and commercial activity in the Arctic region.

• Enhance Arctic Domain Awareness — We seek to improve our awareness of activities, conditions, and trends in the Arctic region that may affect our safety, security, environmental, or commercial interests.

The United States will endeavor to appropriately enhance sea, air, and space capabilities as Arctic conditions change, and to promote maritime-related information sharing with international, public, and private sector partners, to support implementation of activities such as the search-and-rescue agreement signed by Arctic states.

• Preserve Arctic Region Freedom of the Seas — The United States has a national interest in preserving all of the rights, freedoms, and uses of the sea and airspace recognized under international law. We will enable prosperity and safe transit by developing and maintaining sea, under-sea, and air assets and necessary infrastructure.

In addition, the United States will support the enhancement of national defense, law enforcement, navigation safety, marine environment response, and search-and-rescuecapabilities

Existing international law provides a comprehensive set of rules governing the rights, freedoms, and uses of the world’s oceans and airspace, including the Arctic.

The law recognizes these rights, freedoms, and uses for commercial and military vessels and aircraft. Within this framework, we shall further develop Arctic waterways management regimes, including traffic separation schemes, vessel tracking, and ship routing, in collaboration with partners

We will also encourage other nations to adhere to internationally accepted principles. This cooperation will facilitate strategic partnerships that promote innovative, low-cost solutions that enhance the Arctic marine transportation system and the safe, secure, efficient and free flow of trade

• Provide for Future United States Energy Security — The Arctic region’s energy resources factor into a core component of our national security strategy: energy security. The region holds sizable proved and potential oil and natural gas resources that will likely continue to provide valuable supplies to meet US energy needs.

Continuing to responsibly develop Arctic oil and gas resources aligns with the United States “all of the above” approach to developing new domestic energy sources, including renewables, expanding oil and gas production, and increasing efficiency and conservation efforts to reduce our reliance on imported oil and strengthen our nation’s energy security.

Within the context of this broader energy security strategy, including our economic, environmental and climate policy objectives, we are committed to working with stakeholders, industry, and other Arctic states to explore the energy resource base, develop and implement best practices, and share experiences to enable the environmentally responsible production of oil and natural gas as well as renewable energy.

2.Pursue Responsible Arctic Region Stewardship
Responsible stewardship requires active conservation of resources, balanced management, and the application of scientific and traditional knowledge of physical and living environments

As Arctic environments change, increased human activity demands precaution, as well as greater knowledge to inform responsible decisions. Together, Arctic nations can responsibly meet new demands — including
*maintaining open sea lanes for global commerce and scientific research,
*charting and mapping,
*providing search-and-rescue services, and developing capabilities to prevent, contain, and respond to oil spills and accidents — by increasing knowledge and integrating Arctic management.

We must improve our ability to forecast future conditions in the Arctic while being mindful of the potential for unexpected developments

To realize this line of effort, we will pursue the specific objectives outlined below:

• Protect the Arctic Environment and Conserve Arctic Natural Resources — Protecting the unique and changing environment of the Arctic is a central goal of US policy. Supporting actions will promote healthy, sustainable, and resilient ecosystems over the long term, supporting a full range of ecosystem services.

This effort will be risk-based and proceed on the basis of best available information. The United States in the Arctic will assess and monitor the status of ecosystems and the risks of climate change and other stressors to prepare for and respond effectively to environmental challenges.

• Use Integrated Arctic Management to Balance Economic Development, Environmental Protection, and Cultural Values — Natural resource management will be based on a comprehensive understanding of environmental and cultural sensitivities in the region, and address expectations for future infrastructure needs and other development-related trends. This endeavor can promote unity of effort and provide the basis for sensible infrastructure and other resource management decisions in the Arctic.

We will emphasize science-informed decision making and integration of economic, environmental, and cultural values. We will also advance coordination among Federal departments and agencies and collaboration with partners engaged in Arctic stewardship activities.

• Increase Understanding of the Arctic through Scientific Research and Traditional Knowledge — Proper stewardship of the Arctic requires understanding of how the environment is changing, and such understanding will be based on a holistic earth system approach. Vast areas of the Arctic Ocean are unexplored, and we lack much of the basic knowledge necessary to understand and address Arctic issues.

The changes in the Arctic cannot be understood in isolation and must be viewed in a global context. As we learn more about the region, we have identified several key subcomponents of the Arctic that require urgent attention:
* land ice and its role in changing sea level;
*sea-ice and its role in global climate,
*fostering biodiversity,
*supporting Arctic peoples; and,
*the warming permafrost and its effects on infrastructure and climate.

Better earth system-level knowledge will also help us meet operational needs such as weather and ice forecasting.

We can make faster progress through a well-coordinated and transparent national and international exploration and research agenda that reduces the potential for duplication of effort and leads to better leveraging of resources.

• Chart the Arctic region — We will continue to make progress in charting and mapping the Arctic region’s ocean and waterways, so long obscured by perennial ice, and mapping its coastal and interior lands according to reliable, modern standards.

Given the vast expanse of territory and water to be charted and mapped, we will need to prioritize and synchronize charting efforts to make more effective use of resources and attain faster progress. In so doing, we will make navigation safer and contribute to the identification of ecologically sensitive areas and reserves of natural resources.

Strengthen International Cooperation
What happens in one part of the Arctic region can have significant implications for the interests of other Arctic states and the international community as a whole

The remote and complex operating conditions in the Arctic environment make the region well-suited for collaborative efforts by nations seeking to explore emerging opportunities while emphasizing ecological awareness and preservation.

We will seek to strengthen partnerships through existing multilateral fora and legal frameworks dedicated to common Arctic issues. We will also pursue new arrangements for cooperating on issues of mutual interest or concern and addressing unique and unprecedented challenges, as appropriate.

US efforts to strengthen international cooperation and partnerships will be pursued through four objectives:

• Pursue Arrangements that Promote Shared Arctic State Prosperity, Protect the Arctic Environment, and Enhance Security — We will seek opportunities to pursue efficient and effective joint ventures, based on shared values that leverage each Arctic state’s strengths. This collaboration will assist in guiding investments and regional activities, addressing dynamic trends, and promoting sustainable development in the Arctic region. Arctic nations have varied commercial, cultural, environmental, safety, and security concerns in the Arctic region

Nevertheless, our common interests make these nations ideal partners in the region. We seek new opportunities to advance our interests by proactive engagement with other Arctic nations through bilateral and multilateral efforts using of a wide array of existing multilateral mechanisms that have responsibilities relating to the Arctic region.

As appropriate, we will work with other Arctic nations to develop new coordination mechanisms to keep the Arctic region prosperous, environmentally sustainable, operationally safe, secure, and free of conflict, and will protect US, allied, and regional security and economic interests

• Work through the Arctic Council to Advance US Interests in the Arctic Region — In recent years, the Arctic Council has facilitated notable achievements in the promotion of cooperation, coordination, and interaction among Arctic states and Arctic indigenous peoples.

Recent successes of the Council include its advancement of public safety and environmental protection issues, as evidenced by the 2011 Arctic Search-and-Rescue Agreement and by the 2013 Arctic Marine Oil Pollution Preparedness and Response Agreement. The United States will continue to emphasize the Arctic Council as a forum for facilitating Arctic states’ cooperation on myriad issues of mutual interest within its current mandate.

• Accede to the Law of the Sea Convention — Accession to the Convention would protect US rights, freedoms, and uses of the sea and airspace throughout the Arctic region, and strengthen our arguments for freedom of navigation and overflight through the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route. The United States is the only Arctic state that is not party to the Convention.

Only by joining the Convention can we maximize legal certainty and best secure international recognition of our sovereign rights with respect to the US extended continental shelf in the Arctic and elsewhere, which may hold vast oil, gas, and other resources. Our extended continental shelf claim in the Arctic region could extend more than 600 nautical miles from the north coast of Alaska

In instances where the maritime zones of coastal nations overlap, Arctic states have already begun the process of negotiating and concluding maritime boundary agreements, consistent with the Law of the SeaConvention and other relevant 10international law

The United States supports peaceful management and resolution of disputes, in a manner free from coercion. While the United States is not currently a party to the Convention, we will continue to support and observe principles of established customary international law reflected in the Convention.

• Cooperate with other Interested Parties — A growing number of non-Arctic states and numerous non-state actors have expressed increased interest in the Arctic region. The United States and other Arctic nations should seek to work with other states and entities to advance common objectives in the Arctic region in a manner that protects Arctic states’ national interests and resources.

One key example relates to the promotion of safe, secure, and reliable Arctic shipping, a goal that is best pursued through the International Maritime Organization in coordination with other Arctic states, major shipping states, the shipping industry and other relevant interests.

Guiding Principles
The US approach to the Arctic region must reflect our values as a nation and as a member of the global community. We will approach holistically our interests in promoting safety and security, advancing economic and energy development, protecting the environment, addressing climate change and respecting the needs of indigenous communities and Arctic state interests. To guide our efforts, we have identified the following principles to serve as the foundation for US Arctic engagement and activities.

• Safeguard Peace and Stability by working to maintain and preserve the Arctic region as an area free of conflict, acting in concert with allies, partners, and other interested parties.

This principle will include United States action, and the actions of other interested countries, in supporting and preserving international legal principles of freedom of navigation and overflight and other uses of the sea related to these freedoms, unimpeded lawful commerce, and the peaceful resolution of disputes. The United States will rely on existing international law, which provides a comprehensive set of rules governing the rights, freedoms, and uses of the world’s oceans and airspace, including the Arctic.

• Make Decisions Using the Best Available Information by promptly sharing — nationally and internationally — the most current understanding and forecasts based on up-to-date science and traditional knowledge.

• Pursue Innovative Arrangements to support the investments in scientific research, marine transportation infrastructure requirements, and other support capability and capacity needs in this region. The harshness of the Arctic climate and the complexity associated with developing, maintaining, and operating infrastructure and capabilities in the region necessitate new thinking on public-private and multinational partnerships.

• Consult and Coordinate with Alaska Natives consistent with tribal consultation policy established by Executive Order. This policy emphasizes trust, respect, and shared responsibility

It articulates that tribal governments have a unique legal relationship with the United States and requires Federal departments and agencies to provide for meaningful and timely input by tribal officials in development of regulatory policies that have tribal implications. This guiding principle is also consistent with the Alaska Federation of Natives Guidelines for Research.

Conclusion
We seek a collaborative and innovative approach to manage a rapidly changing region. We must advance US national security interests, pursue responsible stewardship, and strengthen international collaboration and cooperation, as we work to meet the challenges of rapid climate-driven environmental change

The melting of Arctic ice has the potential to transform global climate and ecosystems as well as global shipping, energy markets, and other commercial interests

To address these challenges and opportunities, we will align Federal activities in accordance with this strategy; partner with the State of Alaska, local, and tribal entities; and work with other Arctic nations to develop complementary approaches to shared challenges

We will proactively coordinate regional development. Our economic development and environmental stewardship must go hand-in-hand

The unique Arctic environment will require a commitment by the United States to make judicious, coordinated infrastructure investment decisions, informed by science

To meet this challenge, we will need bold, innovative thinking that embraces and generates new and creative public-private and multinational cooperative models.

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