Tim Searchinger, et al. / World Resources Institute – 2018-12-10 22:46:33
https://www.wri.org/our-work/project/world-resources-report/world-resources-report-creating-sustainable-food-future
Can We Feed Humanity without Destroying the Planet?
Creating a Sustainable Food Future
Tim Searchinger, et al. / World Resources Institute
By 2050, nearly 10 billion people will live on the planet. Can we produce enough food sustainably? Sustainably feeding nearly 10 billion people by 2050 is possible — but it will require significant innovation and investment by the public and private sector.
The synthesis report of the World Resources Report, Creating a Sustainable Food Future shows that it is possible — but there is no silver bullet. This report offers a five-course menu of solutions to ensure we can feed everyone without increasing emissions, fueling deforestation or exacerbating poverty. Intensive research and modeling examining the nexus of the food system, economic development, and the environment show why each of the 22 items on the menu is important and quantifies how far each solution can get us.
Creating a Sustainable Food Future has been produced by World Resources Institute in partnership with the World Bank, UN Environment, UN Development Programme, and the French agricultural research agencies CIRAD and INRA.
Read the full report here.
CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE: SYNTHESIS REPORT
Tim Searchinger with Richard Waite, Craig Hanson, and Janet Ranganathan / WRI
This synthesis report summarizes the findings of the World Resources Report Creating a Sustainable Food Future, a multiyear partnership between World Resources Institute, the World Bank Group, United Nations Environment, the United Nations Development Programme, the Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le developpement, and the Institut national de la recherche agronomique.
The full report will be published in the spring of 2019. Previously published installments analyzing many of the issues covered in this report in greater detail are available at https://www.wri.org/our-work/project/world-resources-report/publications.
The report focuses on technical opportunities and policies for cost-effective scenarios for meeting food, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions goals in 2050 in ways that can also help to focus. As with any report, it cannot address all issues factors or remedies for tackling acute food shortages freshwater use.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
As the global population grows from 7 billion in 2010 to a projected 9.8 billion in 2050, and incomes grow across the developing world, overall food demand is on course to increase by more than 50 percent, and demand for animal-based foods by nearly 70 percent.
Yet today, hundreds of millions of people remain hungry, agriculture already uses almost half of the world’s vegetated land, and agriculture and related land-use change generate one-quarter of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
This synthesis report proposes a menu of options that could allow the world to achieve a sustainable food future by meeting growing demands for food, avoiding deforestation, and reforesting or restoring abandoned and unproductive land — and in ways that help stabilize the climate, promote economic development, and reduce poverty.
Achieving these goals requires closing three great “gaps” by 2050:
The Food Gap — the diference between the amount of food produced in 2010 and the amount necessary to meet likely demand in 2050. We estimate this gap to be 7,400 trillion calories, or 56 percent more crop calories than were produced in 2010.
The Land Gap — the diference between global agricultural land area in 2010 and the area required in 2050 even if crop and pasture yields continue to grow at past rates. We estimate this gap to be 593 million hectares (Mha), an area nearly twice the size of India.
The GHG Mitigation Gap — the difference between the annual GHG emissions likely from agriculture and land-use change in 2050, which we estimate to be 15 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO and a target of 4 Gt that represents agriculture’s proportional contribution to holding global warming below 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures.
We therefore estimate this gap to be 11 Gt. Holding warming below a 1.5°C increase would require meeting the 4 Gt target plus reforesting hundreds of millions of hectares of liberated agricultural land.
This report explores a 22-item “menu for a sustainable food future,” which is divided into five “courses” that together could close these gaps:
(1) reduce growth in demand for food and agricultural products;
(2) increase food production without expanding agricultural land;
(3) exploit reduced demand on agricultural land to protect and restore forests, savannas, and peatlands;
(4) increase fish supply through improved wild fisheries management and aquaculture; and (5) reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.
On the one hand, the challenge of simultaneously closing these three gaps is harder than often recognized. Some prior analyses overestimate potential crop yield growth, underestimate or even ignore the challenge of pastureland expansion, and “double count” land by assuming that land is available for reforestation or bioenergy without accounting for the world’s growing need to produce more food, protect biodiversity, and maintain existing carbon storage.
Significant progress in all 22 menu items is necessary to close the three gaps, requiring action by many millions of farmers, businesses, consumers, and all governments.
On the other hand, the scope of potential solutions is often underestimated. Prior analyses have generally not focused on the promising opportunities for technological innovation and have often underestimated the large social, economic, and environmental co-benefits. Our menu is detailed but several themes stand out:
Raise Productivity. Increased efficiency of natural resource use is the single most important step toward meeting both food production and environmental goals. This means increasing crop yields at higher than historical (linear) rates, and dramatically increasing output of milk and meat per hectare of pasture, per animal — particularly cattle — and per kilogram of fertilizer.
If today’s levels of production efficiency were to remain constant through 2050, then feeding the planet would entail clearing most of the world’s remaining forests, wiping out thousands more species, and releasing enough GHG emissions to exceed the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets enshrined in the Paris Agreement — even if emissions from all other human activities were entirely eliminated.
Manage Demand. Closing the food gap will be far more difficult if we cannot slow the rate of growth in demand. Slowing demand growth requires reducing food loss and waste, shifting the diets of high meat consumers toward plant-based foods, avoiding any further expansion of biofuel production, and improving women’s access to education and healthcare in Africa to accelerate voluntary reductions in fertility levels.
Link Agricultural Intensification with Natural Ecosystems Protection. Agricultural land area is not merely expanding but shifting from one region to another (e.g., from temperate areas to the tropics) and within regions. The resulting land-use changes increase GHG emissions and loss of biodiversity.
To ensure that food production is increased through yield growth (intensification) and not expansion, and productivity gains do not encourage more shifting, governments must explicitly link e orts to boost crop and pasture yields with legal protection of forests, savannas, and peatlands from conversion to agriculture.
Moderate Ruminant Meat Consumption. Ruminant livestock (cattle, sheep, and goats) use two-thirds of global agricultural land and contribute roughly half of agriculture’s production-related emissions. Ruminant meat demand is projected to grow by 88 percent between 2010 and 2050.
Yet, even in the United States, ruminant meats (mostly beef) provide only 3 percent of calories. Closing the land and GHG mitigation gaps requires that, by 2050, the 20 percent of the world’s population who would otherwise be high ruminant-meat consumers reduce their average consumption by 40 percent relative to their consumption in 2010.
Target Reforestation and Peatland Restoration. Rewetting lightly farmed, drained peatlands that occupy only around 0.3 percent of global agricultural lands provides a necessary and cost-effective step toward climate change mitigation, as does reforesting some marginal and hard-to-improve grazing land.
Reforestation at a scale necessary to hold temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius (i.e., hundreds of millions of hectares) is potentially achievable but only if the world succeeds in reducing projected growth in demand for resource-intensive agricultural products and boosting crop and livestock yields.
Require Production-related Climate Mitigation. Management measures exist to significantly reduce GHG emissions from agricultural production sources, particularly enteric fermentation by ruminants, manure, nitrogen fertilizers, and energy use. These measures require a variety of incentives and regulations, deployed at scale. Implementation will require far more detailed analysis and tracking of agricultural production systems within countries.
Spur Technological Innovation. Fully closing the gaps requires many innovations. Fortunately, researchers have demonstrated good potential in every necessary area.
Opportunities include crop traits or additives that reduce methane emissions from rice and cattle, improved fertilizer forms and crop properties that reduce nitrogen runoff, solar-based processes for making fertilizers, organic sprays that preserve fresh food for longer periods, and plant-based beef substitutes.
A revolution in molecular biology opens up new opportunities for crop breeding. Progress at the necessary scale requires large increases in R&D funding, and flexible regulations that encourage private industry to develop and market new technologies.
Using a new model called GlobAgri-WRR, we estimate how three scenarios we call “Coordinated Effort,” “Highly Ambitious,” and “Breakthrough Technologies” can narrow and ultimately fully close our three gaps. Figure ES-1 illustrates how our five courses of action could feed the world and hold down global temperature rise. Although a formidable challenge, a sustainable food future is achievable if governments, the private sector, and civil society act quickly, creatively, and with conviction.
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