AirDefender23 and the Apocalypse.
NATO, Don’t Do It!
Bruce Wilkinson / BruceCampaign.org
(June 13, 2023) — NATO’s Air Defender 23, starting today, might be the worst decision ever made. A devastating direct entry of the US and Europe into the Ukraine war. Turning this ill-conceived exercise into World War 3.
“Air Defender 23 will represent the most extensive deployment exercise of air forces in the history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, commonly known as NATO. The unprecedented event will involve up to 10,000 exercise participants who will train their flying skills with approximately 220 aircraft. The military exercise will take place in European airspace and under the command of the German Air Force, or Luftwaffe,” writes Giacomo Amati, in the article “Air Defender 23: The Huge Military Air Defence Exercise Planned In Europe.”
Future survivors may look back and say that WW3, the war that destroyed the world, started with NATO’s Air Defender 23. Despite that, it is not front page of the US left. My attempt to make it so fell mostly on deaf ears. Professors on the left who are normally antiwar, gave me no response. The only person I reached out to who immediately saw that raising awareness about this was important, was Brett Weinstein.
Future historians may uncover that Biden had considered launching an attack under the ruse of Air Defender 23, but in the days before, he was convinced against it. Partially because members of the public, who had seen through the plan, were speaking out against it. A footnote mentioning in some history book.
Like when Truman almost nuked Korea. He had nine bombs ready to go, staged in Okinawa. Even ran several nuclear bomber exercises over Korea called Operation Hudson Harbor. Had he not replaced Gen. Douglas MacArthur with Gen Matthew Ridgway, who had “qualified authority” to use them, it would have happened. Gen. MacArthur had said he wanted to drop 50 nuclear bombs across Korea.
We often tend to think these men sat alone in a room and decided. But, as the saying goes, no man is an island. Truman may have read a letter from a citizen for all we know. Maybe a young lady in high school, who wrote one day from her heart, pleading that nuclear weapons should never be used again!
Maybe, without Truman even realizing it, that letter was what pushed him to replace Gen. MacArthur. There may be a person out there, who never knew, but they were the one responsible for saving millions of lives.
Well, one can hope. Better than that, we can all talk about the dangers of NATO’s Air Defender 23. Like Bret Weinstein has done. It has still mostly gone without notice much less the criticism it desperately needs. I’m sure most of our representatives haven’t heard of it either. I worry a false flag against Germany blamed on Russia during June directs the warplanes. Or maybe it is just a sneak attack on Russian bases in Crimea. Who knows? But we need to share our concerns far and wide. Let it be a footnote of some terrible thing that might’ve been rather than the start of the greatest disaster ever known.
Preparations Have Been Made
What of the Final Order to Proceed?
I think there is a choice being made as we speak by the US, NATO, Poland, Eastern European and other countries. The large offensive plans are made. The covert plans are made. The logistics are in place. The political scripts written. I’m sure they’ve got the trigger set for whatever is going to happen. Blame prepared for Russia.
I’m sure they’ll claim their engagement reasonable. They’ll say they’re entering Ukraine not attacking Russia. That Crimea and the Donbas are Ukraine. There will be legal justifications pointed at. They’ll call it something new. They won’t say that they are committing the US and Europe to WW3.
The F-16s may become immediately available, taking off from Poland. Maybe the NATO exercise becomes live to back up the F-16s running under a UKR or Polish flag. They may pretend all the missiles come from the F-16s, or they fire the missiles from the air over Europe or the Black Sea. They blast a path for UKR troops to Crimea and then hit the bases in Crimea in a surprise.
Concurrently, Poland and Estonia sign a military alliance with Ukraine, they send troops in that run to secure the line behind UKR as all UKR forces charge. Maybe they call them peace-keeping forces, certainly they’d want to call them that.
Afterwards, the US makes an offer of a ceasefire to Russia and the US agrees to sit down to a peace process — one that basically demands a full Russian withdrawal. The hope being that Russia, having been shown the true might of NATO, becomes demoralized. Putin, feeling defeated, agrees.
However, what if Russia doesn’t react how NATO wants? Instead of a NATO successful sneak attack, Russia is prepared and shoots first taking down much of the NATO air force. Also Russia hits the Polish staging grounds for all the NATO equipment and the Polish Air Force Base. The US invokes NATO Article 5 and prepares to immediately fire from the USS Ford Carrier Strike Group to strike Russia directly. The US thought this might be a possibility, which is why they brought their most advanced aircraft carrier strike group to the north seas.
But wait! Russia does what the US and NATO think it won’t. They sink the USS Ford Carrier Strike Group before they can launch their planes and missiles. Meanwhile, surprisingly, Russia sinks the two Carrier Strike Groups menacing off the coast of China as well. The US is in shock. Then suddenly the 6 remaining Aircraft Carrier Strike Groups are all sunk. Russian submarines pop up off the east coast. They demand the US agrees to pull all their troops out of Europe and stay away from Taiwan and the China Sea.
Something Like This Is Possible
Could Russia sink much of the US navy in a day? I don’t know. Putin probably knows if he could and he probably also knows what the US could do as well. Biden might not know if Russia could, it might simply be unthinkable to Biden. The ideology of US supremacy having blinded him. This worries me.
Russia has the missiles that can sink aircraft carriers. Hypersonic missiles that can’t be stopped by US air defenses. Missiles that the US doesn’t have an equal to or answer for currently. The US might successfully build such a missile or defensive capabilities in the next couple of years or it may take quite a bit longer. So in this moment of time, Russia has a certain important missile superiority, although they may not have enough of them built. If they feel that the US is going to be a long-term military threat, they might decide to take this advantage while they’ve got it.
Nuclear War Is an Option, But a Bad One
An attack like this would severely hurt US force projection capabilities that would not be easily replaced. The US would be a mad hornets nest but suddenly stuck across the ocean. Nuclear War being an option, but a bad one. Russia has the advantage with it’s missiles and missile defense in nuclear capabilities right now. Certainly Russia would not come out completely unscathed but if Russia didn’t hit US territory in the process, maybe it would be a check on US red lines.
The US might want to back down, if it is knowing that no further Russian attack was likely coming. If Russian demands remain what they currently are for example.
Arguably, if such an act is done, the US might not be able or want to build another expeditionary force. China and Russia have generally only regional force projection capabilities and are unlikely to want to build more. The US economic situation is bad, but it would become much worse if we were also suddenly considered weak, because the US economic reality is buoyed greatly by the US brand hype.
A wannabe war economy meets an overinflated and overextended empire, not an aspiring new empire. Russia and China would be undoubtedly open to real arms control treaties, they have been the whole time. An attack like this would clearly be towards forcing the US to back off. The end of the US empire, replaced by a multipolar world.
An Attack or Counterattack Is Not Without Precedent
It seems that the US is planning on wading in past Russian redlines incrementally. They think the longer they get away with it the more they get at less cost. But either side might look at the long-term strategy and weigh out where their red line is and then act upon it.
The red line is basically the point at which it is better for a side to strike first, hard and fast, knowing that this means they are all in. With the incremental provocations by the US continually being met by vocal threats and more defensive measures, the US may be under the false illusion that Russia is rolling over.
However, though Russia may seem cautious, patient, predictable or weak to the US, the truth might be more that Russia’s redline hasn’t been pushed back it simply hasn’t been reached. The US underestimations of Russia and China correlate with their overestimations of their own power. This US belief of unmatched supremacy, a hubris that is potentially far more damaging in this scenario. Russia certainly doesn’t see itself in that light, it’s opinions of their own capabilities are likely more realistic.
The picture I painted of Russia and China sinking the overwhelming majority of the US Expeditionary Naval Forces — in what would be the boldest and most damaging single conventional attack to the forces of another country in history — isn’t necessarily without precedent. Pearl Harbor would have been the same kind of military thinking. Which was provoked by the US freezing Japanese accounts and sanctions.
Pearl Harbor Redux
Some argue the US knew in advance that Pearl Harbor would be attacked and sent half the fleet out but allowed it to happen. Because the US wanted to enter into WW2 but the public was against it. The US had been preparing for war for several years and had been sending weapons and money to the militaries fighting the Axis powers.
Ukraine launching it’s offensive on or about D-Day, is another major example of a sneak attack that rhymes with the current potential scenario evolving out of Air Defender 23. Codenamed Operation Neptune, D-Day was the largest seaborne invasion in history and it was a surprise attack.
According to the history on the US Army’s website: “On June 6, 1944, more than 160,000 Allied troops landed along a 50-mile stretch of heavily-fortified French coastline, to fight Nazi Germany on the beaches of Normandy, France. Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower called the operation a crusade in which, “we will accept nothing less than full victory.” More than 5,000 Ships and 13,000 aircraft supported the D-Day invasion, and by day’s end, the Allies gained a foot-hold in Continental Europe.”
NATO’s Air Defense 23: D-Day for Russia?
The best time for the warmongers to directly involve NATO in the war in Ukraine, would be during this well-propagandized, and likely last possible, Ukrainian offensive. One aim of which is cutting Russia’s land supply route to Crimea. President Zelensky has stated that it is his goal of taking the whole of the Crimea peninsula. A Herculean task for Ukraine’s offensive force whose estimated strength is 40-80,000 troops and almost no airpower. What could tip the scales is if they had NATO air power intervention. Which is exactly what Air Defender 23 might actually be.
President Biden and other top officials have repeatedly made clear that they do not support Ukraine using the US weapons to attack Russia directly. What they have also said, is that they consider Crimea part of Ukraine, despite it having been annexed by Russia in 2014. Russia has made it crystal clear that Crimea is now, once again, a part of Russia.
They have also made it clear that they consider any attack against Crimea an attack against Russia itself. Which means that while the US and Europe might claim to involve itself in some sort of declared no-fly-zone or international peace force, Russia may see it as an act of war. Russia then might very possibly chose to launch missiles at NATO bases in Europe.
A Probable Scenario
Journalist John Helmer has been raising awareness of these possible NATO plans. The exact scenario of what is being planned, if anything at all, is unknown except outside a very small circle of decision makers. Here is what Helmer says might be a likely scenario. “The operational plan is to strike from Romanian airspace in the south and the Baltic states in the north, in camouflage of the NATO exercise called ‘Air Defender 23,’ and under cover of US F-16 fighter aircraft purportedly operated by Ukrainian pilots but fuelled, directed, and guarded by more than 200 US and NATO aircraft, including the most advanced US air war fighter, the F-35.”
Helmer also mentions two other exercises happening concurrently that he thinks will be involved in obscuring the US’ leadership:
“Camouflaging US direction of the combined NATO attack operations from the Ramstein base in Germany, headquarters of the allied air command in Europe, are two parallel operations.
“Two NATO exercises, RAMSTEIN DUST for NATOs Deployable Air Command and Control capability, the DARS, and RAMSTEIN GUARD for Electronic Warfare are linked into our exercise.”
The Hubris of NATO’s Warmongers
The warmongers running the US and NATO shouldn’t be mistaken because of their titles as being competent, rational or reasonable people. That they consider themselves supreme in their own intelligence and power seems apparent. The hubris in many any of their past statements as well as disastrous previous decisions, such as blowing up Nordstream, would indicate that these are exactly the type of people who would think nothing of “poking the bear.”
One point that gives added credence that Helmer may be on to something, is simply that it would be a strange move by Ukrainian President Zelensky to try and take back Crimea without an air force to back him up.
Crimea is incredibly well protected, having been fortified since 2014 but also being the home of Russia’s naval base for hundreds of years. It is also likely that NATO has been working on plans for how to take back Crimea, by force if necessary, since 2014. While Ukrainians have been planning the details for their part over the past five months, a bigger NATO plan that was 8 years in the making might be Air Defender 23.
There is another historically relevant date for the egotistical warmongers. “June 12, 1944 – World War II: Operation Overlord: American paratroopers of the 101st Airborne Division secure the town of Carentan, Normandy, France.”
The 101st Airborne Division is in Romania right now. If the Ukrainian target is Crimea beginning D-Day, June 6th. If Ukraine launches its southern offensive around then and manages to survive 6 days and cut off the land connection of Crimea to Russia. Then the US 101st Airborne coming in on the 12th is very plausible. Especially backed by these 220 warplanes and with a US aircraft carrier, with 80 more warplanes, on the ready nearby.
Protest to Prevent War!
Today is the start of the NATO exercise, it’s important to get this message out there. Because, if there is a NATO sneak attack already planned, then the justification and media campaign to sell it to the people is also already planned. Whatever happens, the justification will include blaming Russia and that NATO is doing what’s right. If something happens during the next ten days, we will have inoculated at least some of the public ahead of the attack by NATO.
Inevitably, if this is the US/ NATO plan, it will only be the beginning. The neoconservatives are planning for US/ NATO direct engagement. We have to stop them.
There are many things to do. Post about it. Talk to friends and family. Talk to legislators. Two people with homemade signs on as many busy street corners in as many towns as possible! Maximize visibility by dispersion. Two people, one sign. That’s the protest, a KISS. Forget trying to join others participating in your area, just do it and expect you’re the only ones. Or do something else, whatever you can!
If there is even a small chance that WW3 starts soon, we need to respond. We become safer in identifying this NATO exercise as a terrible threat for the world and that it should be stopped. Keep in mind that the exercise itself might not be the start. That the 100 jets, the tons of equipment and the gear that the US provided, as well as the troops for this exercise, might remain to be used at a later date.
Regardless, the NATO’s Air Defender 23 is a provocation. If it is just a threat to Russia, that isn’t good. If it is a precursor to a later attack, that is worse. If it’s a sneak attack, that’s the end.
We need the public to know that if something terrible happens, it’s because the warmongering fools in the US and EU are intentionally making it happen. Those fools might just cause a few deafening booms before the multitudes are silenced.
