So Many Dominoes Might Fall
If Putin “Wins”
Bill Astore / Bracing News

(January 30, 2024) — I was reading Heather Cox Richardson again and came across this priceless quote:
[NATO Secretary General Jens] Stoltenberg: It would be a tragedy for the Ukrainians if President Putin wins, but it will also make the world more dangerous and us, all of us, more insecure. It will embolden other authoritarian leaders — not only Putin…but also North Korea, Iran, and China — to use force.  Today it’s Ukraine; tomorrow it could be Taiwan. So therefore it is in our interests to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation

My goodness: what arrant nonsense.

First, is it only “authoritarian leaders” and countries that use force? I’m glad the United States and Israel are never “emboldened” to use force.

Second, is it really the case that a Putin “win” in Ukraine will be the signal to China to attack Taiwan, for Iran to attack the US or Israel, for North Korea to attack South Korea and the US? After all, Putin has been bogged down in a costly and stalemated war for two years.

What has Russia won, exactly, from seizing and occupying territory in eastern Ukraine? Putin’s “win” doesn’t seem like the kind of victory that would inspire other leaders to resort to dangerous wars as prudent low-cost policy choices.

Stoltenberg’s comments are a variation on the tried-and-false idea of the domino theory. Let one “bad” country (Russia) win, let one “good” country (Ukraine) lose, and soon all the other “bad” countries will follow, attacking and defeating all the “good” ones.

The domino theory is of course infamous from the US/Vietnam War, where the fall of South Vietnam to communism would allegedly lead to the fall of Thailand, the Philippines, and many other countries in Asia to communism. North Vietnam, of course, did indeed win, but South Vietnam’s fall didn’t lead to cascading dominoes.

The overselling of Ukraine to the peoples of Europe and America has been amazing. I had no idea that Ukraine was the linchpin to world democracy, and that a Putin “win” would touch off victory parades for authoritarian leaders from North Korea and China to Iran and lord-knows-where-else.

Meanwhile, US leaders continue wholeheartedly to support the wanton use of force by Israel against Gaza with the clear goal of killing or expelling all the Palestinians there. We aren’t supposed to call that ethnic cleansing or genocide in slow motion, apparently because we’re supposed to ignore Bibi Netanyahu’s “river to the sea” goal of dominating and controlling the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip.

I’m certainly glad Bibi isn’t one of those “authoritarian leaders” who might be “emboldened” to use force to achieve his aims. Right, Mr. Stoltenberg?