First-strike Capable: Why Russia Is Indifferent to
Damage to Its Ground-based Radar Installations
Gilbert Doctorow/ GilbertDoctorow.com

(June 1, 2024) — Ladies and gentlemen, let me open this discussion with an out-of-the-box explanation as to why Russia appears to be laid back over the destruction of one of its early warning radar installations in the south of the country and undetermined damage to another during the past week.

This, while the Western mainstream media speak of severe impairment to Russia’s defenses and some military experts in the USA publish denunciations of the Biden administration for exposing the country to nuclear attack from Russia caused by false positives on their monitors that arise in the final minutes of a supposed attack due to the absence of suitable ground radar to double check what the inadequate Russian satellite warning system tells them.

The fundamental issue, as I see it, was flagged long ago when President Putin said that Russia responds in an asymmetric manner to whatever challenges the US and allied militaries present. Washington pulled out of the treaty on ABMs under George W. Bush thereby undermining the foundations of nuclear deterrence and the Russians then headed off in their own direction to find and implement a devastating counter-measure.

As it turns out, Russia’s IT geniuses who went abroad in the Yeltsin years to set up Google and other wonderful and powerful corporations in Silicon Valley serving primarily the consumer sector did not drain Russia of its brainpower.  Indeed, more than enough patriotic IT geniuses remained in country to provide Mr. Putin and the country at large with an adequate talent pool to engineer and produce what, 22 years later, we recognize as world-beating Russian defense systems.

No one in the West talks about the implications of what the Russians have developed and in particular what it means in the present context of concern that the poor, blinded Russians do not get early warning of a nuclear attack. Let me say it out loud:  the Russians have first nuclear strike capability thanks to their newly introduced Sarmat missiles carrying smaller, unstoppable hypersonic missiles as payload.

Russia’s Sarmat missile can destroy an area the size of France.

A fully loaded Sarmat can level to the ground a country the size of the UK; several of them can fairly well erase the USA from the map. In addition the Russians have short to medium range hypersonic missiles that can be launched from frigates 400 km off America’s shores. And they are working on a nuclear torpedo (Poseidon) that alone can take out entire cities in the tsunamis they create.

What this means is that there is a good probability that when push comes to shove, when their intelligence reports the concentration of nuclear cruise and ballistic armed US submarines in the Arabian Gulf for example, when their satellites tell them about missile concentrations in Western, Central and Eastern Europe that have an ominous message, they will threaten and possibly carry out a devastating first strike against the USA, which as they say openly, is the puppet master not only in Ukraine but in all of Western Europe.

The second argument for not looking down our noses at the Russian military for failing to have an equivalent to the US global missile launch detection capability is the investment the Russians have made in building their own version of Iron Domes to protect major cities, and presumably, major military infrastructure from U.S. nuclear attack.

Two days ago I understood what that means when listening to Great Game host Vyacheslav Nikonov talk about the attacks the day before (29 May) using U.S. ATACMS long range missiles fired from Ukraine against the area of the Kerch bridge and other targets deep in Russia.

See the opening minutes of this 46 minute segment of the program: https://rutube.ru/video/ef8865c657153655c76030b72c5ae5ac/

Note that these attacks took place a day before President Biden officially announced U.S. acquiescence in Kiev’s intentions to strike inside Russia. The Biden team gave assurances that the weapons would be used exclusively against militarily valuable targets. The Kerch bridge to Crimea, of course, is now purely civilian infrastructure given that all Russian military deliveries to the front have long been redirected to land-based rail lines running parallel to the Sea of Azov that the Russians have expanded over the past year.

The point made by Nikonov is that all of these missiles were shot down by Russian air defense systems. An invited expert informed the audience that the American missiles have their weak spots which the Russians are exploring and exploiting to destroy them in the air.

This does not mean that Russian air defense is 100% reliable. But it means that as regards missiles of all kinds it does a great job.  That contrasts, of course, with defense against the much harder to find smaller and more maneuverable incoming drones, which were the weapon of choice in the Ukrainian attack on Russian radar installations. But drones do not destroy cities and kill hundreds of thousands if not millions of people. Missiles do that.

On the same day, 4 – 6 unmanned British cutters valued at 6 million dollars each which were sent against Russian Black Sea vessels were destroyed by the Russian side.

These latest U.S. and British guided attacks were said to be proof that the U.S. led West now understands perfectly well that Ukraine is facing defeat and are doing what they can to raise the stakes. The F16s soon to be introduced into the conflict will be another major escalation by the West. They will be treated by Russia as a NATO nuclear armed task force to contain Russia. The French led effort to put together a coalition of providers of instructors on the ground in Ukraine is still another dimension of the very dangerous ongoing escalation.

Note: Nikonov and his panelists discussed these existential threats in calm and deliberate manner. None is certain how the Kremlin will respond to a successful attack nominally delivered by Ukraine but de facto Western-guided. Perhaps there will be a massive Russian attack made on the city of Kiev.

 

I truly wonder what is the benefit of having a 15-minute advance warning of an incoming missile attack if, as is 100% certain, an automatic ‘Dead Hand’ launch has already been scripted. Moreover, what would be the sense of lifting the handset of a Red Phone to Washington to speak to….whom?  Biden, Sullivan or any other of the liars and card cheats who populate the top echelons of the federal government? Not a trustworthy person among them with whom you would risk the fate of your nation.

The overriding message I wish to convey is that Americans have forgotten their old folk wisdom that “there are many different ways to skin a cat.” Experts in America’s dissident underground can be just as unwilling to comprehend that Russians are not weak and stupid as American generals and their minions in the press were saying when they denounced Russia’s opening moves in its Special Military Operation for failing to do what America does in such instances: use a Shock and Awe campaign to murder everyone and destroy everything in its path.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

Posted in accordance with Title 17, Section 107, US Code, for noncommercial, educational purposes.