NATO Mulls Imposing
No-Fly Zone Over Western Ukraine
Tyler Durden / ZeroHedge

(July 1, 2024) — Ukraine has revived its talking point and demand that NATO ‘close the skies’ over Ukraine, which was first featured heavily in the wake of the February 2022 Russian invasion. When this was initially suggested, the idea was that Western jets would intervene or else US anti-air systems would be set up across Ukraine.

But now Ukrainian officials have shifted their request, to involve the establishment of US Patriot systems along Ukraine’s Western border from where they would provide protection. Ukrainian parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko told AFP, “I don’t understand why NATO doesn’t deploy Patriot systems along the Polish border.”

“After all, Russian missiles have already entered Polish and Romanian airspace. This would protect the borders of Poland and Romania, and this would create a safe zone in the west and south of Ukraine,” he added.

Ukraine’s industry and energy infrastructure is being decimated by daily and weekly large-scale drone and missile attacks, to the point that rolling blackouts have had to be introduced nationwide.

However, even if the defense systems were established near the border, the scenario would still involve NATO-manned equipment shooting down Russian jets. It would obviously constitute direct NATO intervention against Russia, setting up for bigger war.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has of course been on board, recently renewing his call for a ‘no fly zone’ backed by the West.

He said in May: “So my question is, what’s the problem? Why can’t we shoot them down? Is it defense? Yes. Is it an attack on Russia? No. Are you shooting down Russian planes and killing Russian pilots? No. So, what’s the issue with involving NATO countries in the war? There is no such issue,” as cited in The New York Times.

And during that same month, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba claimed that there remains “no legal, security or moral argument that stands in the way of our partners shooting down Russian missiles over the territory of Ukraine from their territory.”

Worrisomely, NATO officials are actually contemplating the idea of at least a partial no fly zone over Ukraine. According to more from AFP:

“In the energy sector, the situation is really hard,” said a senior Ukrainian security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, adding he fears it will deteriorate further as winter approaches.

The official said talks were “in progress” with Western allies on a no-fly zone over western Ukraine using Patriot systems in Poland or Romania, “but that is not a simple decision.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/nfz.jpg?itok=_vWN1paP

NATO’s escalation has come piecemeal, even as there has been little serious effort toward getting the two warring sides to the negotiating table. Only in the last several weeks have there been murmurings out of Kiev that it’s time for some kind of negotiations, given how poorly Ukraine forces are fairing on the front lines.

Kyiv Pushes Allies to Create
No-Fly Zone in Western Ukraine
‘Defense Post

(June 28, 2024) — Lacking sufficient anti-aircraft systems to repel Russia’s unrelenting attacks, Ukraine is pushing its European allies to establish a no-fly zone in the west of the country by deploying air defense systems in neighboring Poland and Romania, officials told AFP.

Kyiv would like to create a safe space in western Ukraine where industry, energy infrastructure, and civilians can be protected against the massive destruction unleashed by Russian strikes in recent months.

“I don’t understand why NATO doesn’t deploy Patriot systems along the Polish border,” said lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko, referring to US-manufactured air defense systems.

“After all, Russian missiles have already entered Polish and Romanian airspace. This would protect the borders of Poland and Romania and this would create a safe zone in the west and south of Ukraine,” he added.

That request was mirrored by several Ukrainian civilian and military officials who spoke to AFP in Kyiv during a trip organized last week by the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and local think tank New Europe Center.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba opened the debate in May, saying there was “no legal, security or moral argument that stands in the way of our partners shooting down Russian missiles over the territory of Ukraine from their territory.”

A No-Fly Zone with nuclear-capable US fighter jets is “inherently escalatory.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky has spent months pushing for more air defenses from his Western partners, but fresh supplies have only trickled in.

Recent victories for Kyiv include Romania’s promise of a Patriot missile defense system, and the United States has said it will prioritize sales of anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine for the next 16 months to allow it to replenish its stocks.

But time is running out for Ukraine, which has seen half its national electricity production capacity destroyed in recent months.

Every week, Russian missiles and drones strike the energy network, causing daily power outages that affect almost the entire population.

Map of energy sites impacted by Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Critical Energy Situation
Russia focused on shelling Ukraine’s energy distribution networks during the winter of 2022-2023, but has recently been destroying energy production facilities, which are much more costly and take years to repair or rebuild.

Moscow is also targeting the country’s energy reserves.

A European diplomatic source says Russian determination was underlined when it struck a facility storing gas three kilometers (nearly two miles) underground in the west of Ukraine.

“In the energy sector, the situation is really hard,” said a senior Ukrainian security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, adding he fears it will deteriorate further as winter approaches.

The official said talks were “in progress” with Western allies on a no-fly zone over western Ukraine using Patriot systems in Poland or Romania, “but that is not a simple decision.”

Western countries have been highly cautious about any moves that could lead to direct clashes with Russian forces and drag them into a wider war, which “makes this process slow and silent,” the official said.

But the subject could be discussed at the next NATO summit in Washington in early July, according to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna.

“We are doing everything we can to mobilise enough air defence elements to allow us to continue to be functional throughout the war,” she told AFP.

Kyiv does not expect any progress towards joining NATO, however, with Washington and Berlin still strongly opposed for fear of further antagonizing Russia.

“The chances of getting an invitation are close to zero,” said a Ukrainian diplomatic source.

But he said that Ukraine’s allies felt a “sense of guilt” about this, which plays into Kyiv’s hands.

That “puts pressure on our allies”, he said, to make “other strong decisions as alternatives.”

Comment
Steven S — Apparently the source of this [first] report is a senior Ukrainian official, so I would not consider it to be definitive. Yet it could be true, given the continued escalatory moves being taken by the US and NATO against Russia, including the impending deployment of F-16s to Ukraine.
Betting that Russia will “back down” or fail to enter the war against NATO if NATO bases or NATO territory is used to attack Russia reminds me of the belief by Douglas MacArthur that China would not enter the Korean War (against the US) if US troops crossed the 38th parallel and approached the Yalu river.