A Reminder That We Face the Election of Our Lives
Bill McKibben / Substack
(July 1, 2024) — Not to add to the existential angst anyone is feeling as we await tonight’s debate, but the morning’s events remind us once again of just how surreal the stakes are in this presidential election. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today granted a permit for the proposed CP2 LNG export facility—an environmental justice travesty, and the biggest single climate bomb proposed for the planet right now.
The only thing standing between CP2 and construction (and the only thing that can prevent the construction of a dozen more of these death stars in the nest few years) is the Department of Energy, aka the president of the United States.
Just to review: there’s a huge pool of frackable gas sitting in the Permian Basin of Texas. The only way to monetize most of it is to ship it to Asia, persuading the fast-growing economies there to use it instead of wind and sun to make electricity.
This scramble has been underway for about eight years, and LNG exports are already a giant industry; if Big Gas gets its way, within a few years American LNG exports from the Gulf of Mexico will be doing more climate damage than everything that happens in Europe. Faced with these facts, and in the wake of the hottest year in human history, the Biden administration decided in January to pause granting new export licenses for these terminals till it can take new scientific and economic data into account.
Climate Activists Just Got FERCed
But FERC, a longtime industry rubber stamp now with new members vetted by Joe Manchin (I-Venus), isn’t interested in any new scientific and economic data; they’ve decided not to take climate change seriously, and they’re not greatly interested in environmental justice either. So, of course, they gave CP2 their blessing.
Theoretically its backers could now build the project—but since it won’t be profitable without a license to sell the stuff to Asia they probably won’t, hoping instead that the Biden DOE blinks—or, more likely, that Donald Trump gets elected because he has promised to immediately hand over those licenses. Day one, baby.
(Not taking any chances, the GOP also introduced language yesterday that would take power for license-granting away from DOE, hand it to FERC, and then mandate how they use it: “the Commission shall deem the exportation or importation of natural gas to be consistent with the public interest.”). If Trump and the GOP triumph, get ready for government of Big Oil by Big Oil for Big Oil until the earth shall perish, which shouldn’t take long.
I joined a press call yesterday with representatives from the Gulf, led by Roishetta Ozane, who has become the local face of the fight; they’ve been living with this hanging over their heads for years now. They were outside Citibank in New York this past week pleading with financiers to stop backing these projects; they were outside the FERC meeting today. But the money invested in these projects is so huge — another LNG developer estimated this week that Biden’s pause had cost them half a billion dollars — that only the power of the presidency might (might) have some chance of restraining it.
There’s no guarantee even if Biden is reelected—but at least there will be a fight, and it will be one of the climactic battles of the fossil fuel era.
More Countries Are Seeking Clean Energy
Fascinating new survey data this week shows that huge majorities of people even in the fossil-fuel producing countries want a quick transition to clean energy.
In China and India, the biggest coal producers, 80% and 76% respectively want a quick green transition, as do 75% of those in Saudi Arabia, the second biggest oil producer. The poll also found 69% of Australians want a quick transition away from its large coal and gas sector.
The numbers in America aren’t as high — but even in our deeply divided political culture, 54% want that quick transition, which by our current standards is a vast majority. (And steadily growing, as flooding becomes a regular occurrence near the oceans).
But we don’t get to directly vote on whether we make this change or not; perhaps some day we’ll have a strong climate action plan, but for 2024 the best we can do is elect a president, and then pressure them all we can. That’s a slender thread, but it’s the one we’ve got.
A Big Win in the Golden State
A huge win overnight in California, where the oil industry has withdrawn a ballot initiative aimed at overturning restrictions on drilling. Activists worked for years to pass a law restricting wells near homes and schools; the oil industry, using California’s referendum system, was preparing to invest huge sums in overturning that law. But activists rallied again — it became clear they had the discipline and wherewithal to run a winning campaign and so last night Big Oil slunk away, vowing to sue instead.
That’s a huge win — and not least because it frees up those activists for other crucial fights (looking at you, invaluable Jane Fonda!)
Meanwhile, the fight to divest California’s pension fund from fossil fuels was delayed for yet another year, prompting a scathing editorial from the LA Times.
California leaders must show they are more than just talk when it comes to climate change and start to ditch dirty, dangerous fossil fuel investments. It’s a smart move not only because these holdings are financially risky in a world that’s shifting to renewable energy, but on moral grounds. It’s wrong to use the retirement money of teachers, firefighters and state workers to support a deceitful industry that profits off environmental destruction and human suffering.
Also in California — I’ve written a piece for today’s New Yorker website that details just how miraculous the spring has been, as renewable energy has managed to power most of the grid most every day (and batteries have taken over when the sun goes down).
It’s taken years of construction — and solid political leadership in Sacramento — to slowly build this wave, but all of a sudden it’s cresting into view. California has the fifth-largest economy in the world and, in the course of a few months, the state has proved that it’s possible to run a thriving modern economy on clean energy.
Bonus — if you read the piece to the end, you’ll learn how one California startup is using all that solar energy to make metal out of seawater. A new world beckons!
Kids Sue Hawai’i for Climate Action
In more great news from the West Coast and beyond, Hawaii reached an agreement with youth suing the state for more climate action.
“You have a constitutional right to fight for life-sustaining climate policy and you have mobilized our people in this case,” Josh Green, the Hawaii governor, told the 13 young plantiffs in the case, saying he hoped the settlement would inspire similar action across the country.
Under what legal experts called a “historic” settlement, announced on Thursday, Hawaii officials will release a roadmap “to fully decarbonize the state’s transportation systems, taking all actions necessary to achieve zero emissions no later than 2045 for ground transportation, sea and inter-island air transportation”, Andrea Rodgers, one of the attorneys representing the plaintiffs in the case, said at a press conference with the governor.
In less good judicial news, the Supreme Court this morning blocked Biden administration efforts to regulate air pollution.
The Supreme Court temporarily put on hold on Thursday an Environmental Protection Agency plan to curtail air pollution that drifts across state lines, dealing another blow to the Biden administration’s efforts to protect the environment.
The ruling followed recent decisions chipping away at the agency’s authority to address climate change and water pollution.
The ruling was provisional, and challenges to the plan will continue to be litigated in an appeals court and could then return to the Supreme Court. But even the temporary loss for the administration will suspend the plan for many months and maybe longer.
Are you now thinking, “darn that Supreme Court, I need a rousing bluegrass climate action song?” Probably, in which case Harry and Joe have you covered with their brand new ‘Runnin From the Weather.’
Ian Edwards has a concise and clear post on one of the most potent potential weapons in the climate fight — the $20 trillion in pension plan money that could be profitably used to help with the green transition. Working with an AI bot, he writes
“Assets managed by defined benefit pension plans represent approximately 15% to 16.67% of the global M3 money supply. Specifically, these assets represent approximately 56% to 74% of the US GDP of $26.9 trillion. This comparison highlights the significant economic footprint of DB pension plans on a global scale.”
“Approximately 100 million people globally have their retirements protected by defined benefit pension plans. The significance of these pension plans holding $20 trillion in assets for just 1.23% of the global population underscores the concentration of financial resources within these plans. This raises questions about the potential role these assets could play in addressing larger global issues, such as the climate crisis.”
The Role of the Wealthy One Percent
So a bit more than one percent of humans control resources sufficient to bail out us all; a key test for policymakers is how to make it possible for people to use their retirement savings to guarantee not only their own future but a planet that everyone might someday retire on!
Everyone except Tesla is selling a lot of EVs, according to Jalopnik. This may be a result of a technological flaw called ‘having a jerk as CEO.’
Tesla has focused its recent marketing efforts on building support for Elon Musk’s outrageous payday rather than on actually marketing its cars, but it’s unlikely that’s the issue plaguing the company — Tesla has never really advertised its vehicles the way legacy automakers do. Instead, Tesla’s history of poor quality control and unpredictable feature removal may finally be catching up with it. As automakers with more established supply chains, dealer networks and repair centers start building electric vehicles, we may see that Tesla market share continue to plummet.
A reminder that the world — and especially its most vulnerable people — is already in an almost impossible spot. Delhi has seen an unrelenting heatwave, and by unrelenting I mean especially that the temperature has hardly been falling at night.
The warmer nights deprive people of rest and recovery from long hours of exposure to oppressive heat, particularly for people without access to air conditioning.
Bicycle rickshaw driver Sagar Mandal told CNN that he’s been getting fewer passengers because people opt for air-conditioned taxis over open-air transport.
“My body can’t take it, but I have to keep cycling. We are used to physical labor, we aren’t complaining about that. But this heat is not normal, something has to change,” the 39-year-old, who pedals people around the city, said.
“No one cares if we live or die, no matter who you vote for this is a problem no one can solve,” he said.
Soaring Temperatures Put Crops at Risk
Meanwhile, and just as ominously, rising temperatures have cut India’s wheat production pretty sharply the past two years.
Studies show that the impact of “heat stress” was more evident in key wheat growing states of north India where wheat productivity declined significantly during the 2021-22 rabi or winter planting season (sowing in mid-November and harvesting in April-May).
In Punjab, for instance, the decline was 13.5 percentcompared to the previous year. Scientists have estimated that for every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature wheat production reduces by 4-5 million tonnes.
Soaring Heat Threatens Paris Olympics
Thanks to the Olympic athletes who are using the spotlight of this summer’s Games to push for an end to fossil fuels.
In a new report, Rings of Fire: Heat Risks at the 2024 Paris Olympics, published by the British Association for Sustainable Sport, 11 Olympians and a team of scientists wrote that extreme heat could harm, injure, and even kill this summer’s Olympic athletes. They implored Olympic organizers to establish heat protections, and they demanded that the sporting world cut ties with fossil fuels.
“We need to transition away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible,” said Jamie Farndale, a rugby sevens player for Great Britain, at a press briefing. “It’s as simple as that.”
The report found that annual temperatures in Paris have increased by 1.8°C since the city last hosted the Olympics in 1924. During the dates in July and August that this year’s Olympics take place, average temperatures are 3.1°C higher now than they were then.
Elders Protest Big Banks Invested in Oil
Not just Gulf South residents protesting outside Citibank — here’s a great piece from the indomitable Rev. Davida Foy Crabtree explaining why older Americans are sitting in (in rocking chairs) outside the banking giant. Elders Week in the protests begins July 8 (I’m planning on attending)
The six of us include a science professor, an ordained minister, an environmental analyst, a psychologist, a molecular biologist and a high school principal. Only one of us had ever been arrested previously. Across our range of professions, we are united in profound worry for all who already, and those who will, suffer deeply as a result of the climate chaos Citibank and others are funding.
It is a moral imperative that we step up and counter that chaos with a bit of “disorderly conduct” to call attention to the irresponsibility of corporations (and governments) that fail to act even as they know the consequences of their inaction.
The drive to charge Big Oil with criminal, not just civil, penalties is gaining steam. A mock ‘prosecution memo’ this week lays out the arguments in a hypothetical Arizona case:
It should not be difficult to prove that the July 2023 heat wave caused numerous deaths in Maricopa County.
Extreme heat can damage the human body in many different ways, but death from hyperthermia occurs through three processes:
(1) the heart pumping faster to send more blood to the skin as a cooling mechanism, causing a heart attack;
(2) fluid loss through sweating, causing kidney failure; and
(3) low oxygen in the gut, causing widespread inflammation and clotting that can lead to multiple organ failure.
The Maricopa County Office of the Medical Examiner and the Maricopa County Department of Public Health work together to identify and designate heat-related deaths based on information regarding how deaths occurred and the circumstances of each death. During the July 2023 heat wave, Maricopa County recorded 403 heat-related deaths, and 59% of its 2023 heat-related deaths were “heat caused,” meaning that environmental heat was the direct cause of death, rather than only a contributing factor.
The Financial Times has a detailed and dispiriting piece on Exxon’s drive to turn Guyana into the world’s last petrostate. Less dispiriting — indeed, spirited — is this new kid’s book tracing the travails of the carbon atom! And meanwhile, the Presbyterian Church (PC) moved a step closer to divesting from fossil fuels, as a committee passed a provision that would
Declare that continued support of the exploration, development, funding, and exploitation of fossil fuels through investment of PC(USA) funds violates the equitable welfare of all life and our biblical charge as humanity to care for creation, and is irretrievably incompatible with the mission and goals of the Presbyterian Church.
If I were in LA I’d go to this for sure
