Haniyeh’s assassination will have repercussions for Iran, the Gaza ceasefire, and prospects of regional war.
Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination:
How Will Iran Respond?
Maziar Motamedi / Al Jazeera
TEHRAN, Iran (July 31, 2024) — Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh has been assassinated in Iran’s capital in an attack that the group blamed on Israel, raising tensions in a region that appears ever closer to the brink of all-out war.
The killing happened hours after Israel carried out another attack in Lebanon, targeting a senior Hezbollah commander. Hamas and Hezbollah are both part of the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’, a loose grouping of outfits spanning the region that are united in their opposition to Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the West Bank and that have been locked in exchanges of missile fire with Israel during the current Gaza war since October 7.
Yet Wednesday’s announcement of Haniyeh’s assassination marks a serious escalation not only in the war on Gaza, but also in the taut relationship between Israel and Iran. Israel, which has not formally claimed responsibility for the Hamas leader’s killing, has never attacked Iranian soil using projectiles launched from outside, despite a history of targeted assassinations and sabotage in Iran. Israeli media has reported that the missile that struck Haniyeh’s residence was launched from outside Iran — though Iran has neither confirmed nor denied the assertion.
Iran, like Hamas, has blamed Israel. Iran’s top leadership promised “harsh revenge” against Israel. Here’s a look at what happened, what it means for Iran, and how the country might respond.
How Was Haniyeh Killed?
The Palestinian leader was killed when the building he was staying in was struck by an “airborne projectile”, according to Iranian state media.
Haniyeh and a personal bodyguard, identified as Wasim Abu Shaaban, were confirmed killed — with no other casualties announced.
The Haniyeh residence was reportedly a building reserved for Iranian military veterans.
The Hamas politburo chief, who was living outside of the Gaza Strip since 2019, had repeatedly travelled to Iran and many other countries since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza, which has killed more than 39,000 Palestinians.
How Was the Timing Significant?
Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration ceremony of moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian among 110 foreign delegations, according to Iranian authorities.
He was killed hours after warmly embracing Pezeshkian on the floor of the parliament following his oath of office, as lawmakers and officials chanted slogans in support of the Palestinian cause.
“Yesterday I raised his victorious hand and today I have to bury him on my shoulders,” wrote Pezeshkian, the reformist-backed moderate president who has promised to engage with the US and the West to lift the harsh sanctions imposed on Iran.
Haniyeh and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhaleh had met Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hours before that. It is unclear whether al-Nakhaleh was also inside or near the residence where Haniyeh was killed.
Hours before the Palestinian leader was killed, Israeli warplanes bombed a residential building in a southern suburb of Beirut, targeting Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr amid a fast-escalating conflict. At least three people were killed and more than 70 others were injured, but it is unclear whether Shukr was among the casualties.
Around the same time, the United States carried out an attack inside a base south of Baghdad operated by Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) that killed multiple members of the Iran-backed group.
What Does This Mean for Iran’s Security?
This was an air attack carried out by Israel in the north of Tehran, according to authorities. This is an area where many top officials reside — and where many of the foreign delegations coming for the inauguration were staying.
It is unclear where exactly the strike took place, but the area was under heavily armed security to protect the foreign guests.
The strike is certain to trigger probes among Iranian military institutions, as it appears it came unexpectedly and there were no reports of air defence activity in the lead-up to the assassination.
In the absence of a large number of advanced fighter jets that could assist with air defence and establishing air superiority, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian army employ a wide range of missile defence systems.
But none of the many foreign-made or locally developed radar systems or missile defence batteries operating at different ranges succeeded in thwarting the attack.
Israel has a long history of sabotaging Iranian nuclear and military facilities and assassinating nuclear scientists inside Iran. It is also believed to have been behind three small explosive quadcopters launched from inside Iran that struck a military facility in Isfahan in April and inflicted damage to a Russian-made S-300 missile defence system.
But it has never launched an air raid inside Iran from outside the country, certainly not against the capital.
How Could Iran Respond?
Iran and Israel have been engaged in a shadow war for many years, but the situation has significantly escalated into open conflict since the start of the war on Gaza, leaving the door open for another potential direct Iranian attack on Israel.
On April 14, Iran launched more than 300 ballistic and cruise missiles, along with one-way drones, directly at Israel in a carefully telegraphed attack. The US and Israel shot down most of the projectiles, but some got through, inflicting damage to a military base but leaving no casualties.
It came in response to the Israeli military’s levelling of the Iranian consulate in Syria’s Damascus, which also killed two top generals and multiple other members of the IRGC.
Earlier this month, IRGC aerospace commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh said in a speech, “we are waiting for the opportunity” to launch a second iteration of the direct attack on Israel, which he suggested could be carried out with even more projectiles. Iran has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East, including hypersonic missiles that are theoretically capable of reaching Israel within minutes.
Iran’s Khamenei, Pezeshkian and IRGC have all promised retaliation for Haniyeh’s assassination, but have not discussed whether it could come in the form of a direct assault, more asymmetrical attacks or a coordinated effort with the “axis of resistance” that Iran backs across the region.
The Iranian mission to the United Nations said “the response to an assassination will indeed be special operations — harder and intended to instil deep regret in the perpetrator”.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran strongly condemns the aggressive act of the Zionist regime,” Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said. Iran, he said, “considers it its inherent right to respond appropriately to this aggressive act against its sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
Kanaani pointed to US support for Israel in its war on Gaza, and blamed it also for Haniyeh’s assassination. “As a supporter and accomplice of the Zionist regime in the continuation of the occupation and genocide of Palestinians, the US government is responsible in committing this heinous act of terrorism,” he said.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken claimed Washington was “not aware of or involved in” Haniyeh’s killing.
What’s at Stake?
The strike comes as Israel and Lebanon have teetered on the edge of all-out war in the past week, after a projectile fell on a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27, killing 12 children and young people.
The Israeli military blamed Hezbollah, which emphatically denied responsibility. Tehran also called the accusation a “fabrication” by Israel to distract from the carnage in Gaza.
The assassination of the Hamas politburo chief, a pivotal figure in the Gaza ceasefire talks, is expected to complicate that process, despite the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the besieged enclave and growing international pressure to stop it.
The military wing of Hamas, the Qassam Brigades, called Haniyeh’s assassination a “dangerous event” that would have “major repercussions across the entire region”.
“The US and EU must have realised by now that Netanyahu’s survival is contingent upon death and destruction,” Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former Iranian foreign minister who played a large role in making Pezeshkian president, wrote in a post on X.
“High time for the west to stop shielding Netanyahu’s madness and join the world in ending his suicidal chaos.”
How Will Iran React to Haniyeh’s Murder in Tehran?
Izvestia
“Citing Pentagon officials, The Washington Post writes that amid a possible escalation, the US Navy has already concentrated 12 warships in the region. Among them is the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, which is in the Persian Gulf with six destroyers. Five ships are also in the Eastern Mediterranean. In turn, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the country “expects difficult days” and that Israel is “ready for any scenario.”
Iran cannot get out of this situation without resorting to an “act of retaliation,” says Rajab Safarov. “The process has begun, and it must end with a logical outcome. No promises, no assurances, and no persuasion can force Iran to refrain from striking, so this strike will be carried out in any case. In addition, there is a fatwa from the spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The only question is how strong it will be and when it will happen,” he added.
However, according to political scientist Roland Bijamov, Iran and its allies understand the balance of power and are not interested in starting a large-scale war first, so Tehran will try to respond in kind to the July 31 attack and continue to “wear down” Israel and its allies in Syria, Iraq, from Lebanon and in the Strait of Hormuz.
14 members of Haniyeh’s family killed in Israeli airstrike.
— If Israel’s opponents strike first, the response will be a strike by Israel, the US and its allies. In essence, we are talking about an analogue of NATO in the Middle East. In fact, this is already happening. We saw this in April during Iran’s attack on Israel. This suits NATO very well, because it has not been a transatlantic bloc for a long time, and it actually strives to work in all regions of the world.
The Middle East is precisely the most convenient point of application for NATO’s efforts. This completely coincides with the interests of the US, because, apparently, they are not capable of supporting Israel alone, — he explained.
The expert believes that regardless of the outcome of the American presidential elections in November, the United States will continue to play the role of Israel’s “guardian.” Netanyahu is confident in such support, which is also proven by the warm welcome he received during his recent trip to Washington. Roland Bijamov did not rule out that it was this support that allowed the Israeli leader to escalate the situation.
“It is possible that the United States is coordinating this situation, but it is also possible that the tail is wagging the dog. Netanyahu is trying to create a new reality in the Middle East and is writing the scripts for these events directly for himself. He is both the director and the screenwriter, and in this case, the other parties, including the United States, are forced to either play along with him or put on a good face in a bad game,” the Izvestia source concluded.”
Jeremy Scahill on The Assassination
of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh
