Putin’s Speech at a Restricted Attendance Meeting
of the CSTO Collective Security Council
President of Russia Vladimir Putin /Kremlin

MOSCOW (November 28, 2024) — President Tokayev, friends.

Like the other participants in this meeting, I would like to first thank the President of Kazakhstan and our Kazakhstani friends for preparing this meeting and for the active work of Kazakhstan’s presidency throughout this year, supported by the teams from all the member states.

As my colleagues rightly noted, cooperation between our states within the Collective Security Treaty Organisation is indeed of high significance. It is an alliance built on the principles of friendship, neighborliness and respect for each other’s interests.

The CSTO is a military and political organisation. Some of our colleagues have asked me to report extensively on the latest developments in the zone of conflict in Ukraine, the zone of the special military operation, in view of the recent developments. Certainly, recognising the importance of the ongoing events, I will gladly provide an update on the situation today, as I believe it is my duty to inform you about the latest events.

As you know, earlier this month, Western officials announced their decision to authorize the Ukrainian armed forces to launch strikes at Russian territory using long-range high-precision weapons produced in the West. We have repeatedly pointed out that this decision would mean direct involvement of Western countries in the armed conflict, as it is simply impossible to deploy this type of weapons without directly involving the military personnel and the military specialists from the respective NATO countries.

As you know, despite our warnings about the dangers of escalating this conflict, strikes were delivered at targets in the Bryansk and Kursk regions with American ATACMS missiles and the British Storm Shadow missiles. I spoke about the consequences of these attacks and the damage we sustained, in my statement on November 21.

For your information — some of our colleagues asked me to provide this information as well — the Russian Iskander missile system and its modifications represent the Russian analogue of all three ATACMS missile modifications. The warhead weight in TNT equivalent is about the same, but Iskander has a longer range. The new US-made PrSM missile is not superior to its Russian counterparts in any specification.

The Storm Shadow air-launched missile, the French SCALP, and the German Taurus have a warhead weighing between 450 and 480 kilogrammes in TNT equivalent and a range of 500 to 650 kilometres. The German Taurus missile has a 650- kilometre range.

The Kh-101 air-launched missile is the Russian analogue of these systems which has a comparable in terms of power warhead, but significantly exceeds each of the European-made systems in terms of range. The new US-made PrSM missiles, as I mentioned earlier, as well as the JASSM, are inferior to their Russian counterparts in terms of technical specifications.

Without a doubt, we are aware of the number of the relevant weapons systems that are in service of our potential adversaries. We know how many of them are kept in storage facilities. We know their exact location, how many weapons have been supplied to Ukraine, and how many more are planned to be supplied.

As far as the production of relevant missile systems and relevant equipment is concerned, Russia has 10 times more of them than the combined output of all NATO countries. Next year, we will increase the production by another 25 to 30 percent.

We can see that the Kiev regime ringleaders are begging their masters for military equipment of a different kind. Let no one forget about the Kalibr, Kinzhal and Zirkon hypersonic missile systems, which are unmatched around the world in terms of their technical specifications. Their production is also being ramped up and is going at full speed.

More such products may show up shortly on our menu of the products of this class, if I may put it that way. As they say, customer satisfaction is guaranteed.

By the way, we used these particular weapon systems over the last two days in response to the continued strikes by ATACMS missiles targeting the territory of Russia. We used a total of 100 systems, 100 different-class missiles which I just mentioned, and 466 strike drones.

Last night, we conducted a comprehensive strike utilizing 90 missiles of these classes and 100 drones, successfully hitting 17 targets. These included military installations, defence industry sites, and their support infrastructure. I want to emphasize once again that these strikes were carried out in response to the continued attacks on Russian territory using American ATACMS missiles. As I have repeatedly stated, such actions will always elicit a response.

Finally, the latest hypersonic strike system, Oreshnik, in its non-nuclear configuration. We had to test it under combat conditions, as I just said — had to, as a response to the Western weapon strikes on the Bryansk and Kursk regions involving ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles.

The Oreshnik system, of course, has no equivalents in the world, and I doubt we will see anything comparable in the foreseeable future. Allow me to briefly explain its operation, as requested.

The system deploys dozens of homing warheads that strike the target at a velocity of Mach 10, equivalent to approximately three kilometres per second. The temperature of the impact elements reaches 4,000 degrees Celsius — nearing the surface temperature of the sun, which is around 5,500–6,000 degrees. Consequently, everything within the explosion’s epicentre is reduced to fractions, elementary particles, essentially turning to dust. The missile is capable of destroying even heavily fortified structures and those located at significant depths.

Military and technical experts note that when used in a concentrated, massive strike — using several Oreshnik missiles simultaneously — the resulting impact is comparable in power to that of a nuclear weapon.

However, the Oreshnik is not classified as a weapon of mass destruction. This distinction is due to two key factors: first, as confirmed in the November 21 test, the system demonstrates exceptional precision; second, and most importantly, it operates without a nuclear warhead, meaning no radioactive contamination follows its use.

As of today, we have several ready-to-deploy systems of this type. Naturally, as previously stated, we will continue to respond to ongoing strikes on Russian territory carried out with Western-made long-range missiles. This may include further testing of the Oreshnik system in combat conditions, as was successfully demonstrated on November 21.

The Ministry of Defence and the General Staff of the Russian Army are currently identifying targets for strikes within Ukraine. These may include military installations, defence industry sites, or decision-making centres in Kiev. All the more so that the Kiev regime has repeatedly attempted attacks on critical infrastructure in Russia, including in St Petersburg and Moscow, with such attempts ongoing.

The serial production of the Oreshnik system has commenced. However, the choice of weaponry will ultimately depend on the nature of the designated targets and the level of threats posed to the Russian Federation.

Commentary
Steven S.:
It looks like Putin overstated the power of the Oreshnik when he said that it had the explosive power of a nuclear weapon. 

Dr. Postol calculates that the maximum total explosive power of the 66 submunitions carried by one Oreshnik is equivalent to about 5 tons of TNT.

While it is still a remarkably powerful and deadly weapon, it doesn’t match the power of a nuclear weapon. But if its submunitions are each independently targetable with extreme accuracy, it would threaten any target — including strategic targets — given that the West cannot intercept it.

When and where is Russia going to again use the Oreshnik to make the point that the West cannot stop them?

Natalya P.:
Listening to Putin’s speech in Russian, I am not hearing Putin claim the Oreshnik has the explosive power of a nuclear weapon. He had stated that it is not a strategic, a.k.a., nuclear weapon. What I am not hearing at all I the English translation is his statement that the Oreshnik can achieve power approximating that of a nuclear weapon when used in combination with other newly developed weapons Russia has not yet demonstrated. So, it’s a team player, not a soloist. There are no side effects of the nuclear weapons in these nuclear weapons.

Prof. Postol has done an excellent job stating the limitations of his analysis, including making wild guesses off photographs, making assumptions regarding speed, density, weight and other relevant physical factors. He has derived his mental picture from the artifacts and his lifelong experience and training, opening with admission that he may not be correct based off the very limited information available to him at this time.

The Russian Military expert on Belarus TV was definitive about the extent of destruction under ground of the weapons factory that the Oreshnik has hit. The actual damage information of the factory is available to Ukrainians and Americans, but not to Prof. Postol, or he would have discussed it. The total silence on the matter in the West, not contradicting claims that the factory was vaporized, especially concerning the R&D underground portion developing new weapons under the direction of the Western specialists and the CIA speaks volumes. It was a decapitation strike.

Steven S.:
I am not seeing Russia giving the West additional clues without very good reasons. It is bad enough that the West does not know what hits it where and when.

At the 36:04 minute mark in this video, Dr. Postol presents a slide showing his calculations on the explosive power of the Oreshnik submunitions. The maximum total explosive power of the submunitions in one missile is about 5 tons in TNT equivalent.  Not as Putin said, the equivalent of a “strategic” i.e. nuclear weapon.

Quite a punch for one non-nuclear missile. If the projectiles have exceedingly precise accuracy, it could be used to take out strategic targets I guess, although given the importance of such targets, I would think Russian war planners would still prefer to use a tactical nuclear weapon for such a task.

Maximum explosive power:
159 lbs TNT x 66 = 9900 lbs TNT.   5 TONS TNT

Minimum
100 lbs  X 66 = 6600 lbs TNT = 3.5 TONS TNT

Putin stated: “Military and technical experts note that when used in a concentrated, massive strike — using several Oreshnik missiles simultaneously — the resulting impact is comparable in power to that of a nuclear weapon.” 

Merriam Webster defines several as being: “an indefinite number more than two and fewer than many”. Let’s assume that several equals a number less than 10.  If 8 Oreshniks were used in a single concentrated missile strike, this would equate to a total explosive power of 40 tons of TNT from the combined effects of all the submunitions of the 8 Oreshnik missiles.

Putin has stated that Russian tactical nuclear weapons have an explosive force of 75 kilotons (75,000 tons of TNT).  That seemed quite large to me, because some US Ohio Class subs now carry the “low-yield” W76-2 warhead, which has an explosive power of 5 to 7 kilotons, or 5,000 to 7,000 tons of TNT explosive equivalent.

One W76-2 warhead has an explosive power roughly 100 times greater than the explosive power delivered by 8 to 10 Oreshnik missiles. So I would contend that Putin overstated the effects of the Oreshnik, unless further Oreshnik attacks show otherwise.

This does not mean the Oreshnik, armed with non-nuclear submunitions, does not pose a deadly threat to US and NATO, as the West has no ability to intercept these missiles before they hit their targets.

Excerpt:
“The system deploys dozens of homing warheads that strike the target at a velocity of Mach 10, equivalent to approximately three kilometres per second. The temperature of the impact elements reaches 4,000 degrees Celsius — nearing the surface temperature of the sun, which is around 5,500–6,000 degrees. Consequently, everything within the explosion’s epicentre is reduced to fractions, elementary particles, essentially turning to dust. The missile is capable of destroying even heavily fortified structures and those located at significant depths.

Military and technical experts note that when used in a concentrated, massive strike — using several Oreshnik missiles simultaneously — the resulting impact is comparable in power to that of a nuclear weapon.”